America wants to “Drill Baby Drill”, what will the consequences be for global climate action?

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The inauguration of President Donald Trump in January 2025 marked a pivotal shift in U.S. energy policy, characterised by a pronounced emphasis on expanding domestic oil and gas production. This strategic pivot, encapsulated by the administration’s rallying cry of “Drill, Baby, Drill,” has profound implications for both national energy dynamics and global climate initiatives.

On his first day back in office, President Trump declared a national energy emergency, initiating the systematic dismantling of the climate change and renewable energy policies enacted by the previous Biden administration. This declaration facilitated the expansion of fossil fuel development by streamlining the approval process for oil and gas projects and weakening environmental reviews. The administration’s priorities shifted toward reducing energy prices for international markets, marking a stark departure from the previous administration’s commitment to combating climate change and promoting renewable energy. The “Drill, Baby, Drill” agenda represents a strategic initiative aimed at bolstering U.S. energy independence and solidifying the nation’s dominance in global energy markets. Central to this plan is the maximization of domestic fossil fuel extraction and utilization, with a particular emphasis on oil and natural gas. A key objective is to reduce reliance on foreign energy sources by significantly ramping up domestic production, leveraging the vast reserves within U.S. territories to position the country as a leading energy powerhouse. The expansion of drilling activities is projected to stimulate economic growth, particularly within the energy sector and its ancillary industries. The administration expects that increased fossil fuel production will drive down energy costs, benefiting both consumers and businesses. This policy shift is accompanied by a deliberate rollback of support for renewable energy initiatives, including the suspension of offshore wind lease sales and the termination of renewable energy tax credits, thereby reallocating federal resources and policy backing toward traditional energy sectors.

On January 20, 2025, President Trump signed Executive Order 14162, titled “Putting America First in International Environmental Agreements,” mandating the immediate withdrawal of the United States from the Paris Agreement and other related international climate commitments. This marked the second U.S. exit from the accord, following a similar withdrawal during Trump’s first term.

This policy reversal stands in stark contrast to the previous administration’s commitments to renewable energy and environmental protection. On March 3, 2025, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) launched an investigation into the management of a $20 billion climate fund established under the Biden administration, resulting in a suspension of the fund and significant delays to ongoing environmental initiatives. Furthermore, key climate measures, such as the moratorium on liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports and restrictions on drilling leases on public lands, have been lifted, signaling a decisive return to fossil fuel expansion. The administration has unveiled plans to open nearly all U.S. waters to offshore oil and gas drilling—the largest expansion of its kind in U.S. history. Protections for the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge have been rescinded, paving the way for oil exploration. Additionally, President Trump has issued executive orders to expedite the approval and construction of major oil pipelines, including the Keystone XL and Dakota Access pipelines, both of which had previously faced delays or cancellations due to environmental concerns.

Another executive order has authorized a substantial increase in logging across U.S. national forests and public lands, affecting approximately 280 million acres. This policy aims to boost domestic timber production by bypassing environmental regulations designed to protect endangered species.

The primary beneficiaries of this policy shift are entrenched within the fossil fuel industry. Major oil corporations, such as Chevron, stand to gain considerably from the administration’s pro-oil stance. Jeff Gustavson, President of Chevron New Energies, has expressed strong support for increased U.S. oil and gas production, emphasizing the company’s commitment to providing affordable and reliable energy. In February 2025, BP announced a strategic pivot, increasing investment in oil and gas production by approximately 20%, allocating $10 billion annually, while simultaneously slashing planned funding for renewable energy projects by over £5 billion, signaling a clear shift back toward traditional energy sources.

However, the administration’s energy strategy has generated tensions within the industry. While fossil fuel producers have broadly welcomed the regulatory rollbacks and expansion of drilling opportunities, some major oil companies have raised concerns about the U.S. withdrawal from international climate agreements. Industry leaders fear that such decisions may isolate American firms in global markets, limit Washington’s ability to shape the global energy transition, and expose U.S. companies to regulatory disadvantages. Darren Woods, CEO of ExxonMobil, has maintained the company’s focus on fossil fuel production while continuing investments in carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies. In November 2024, Woods voiced concerns over the potential withdrawal from the Paris Agreement, stressing the need for stable policies to support ExxonMobil’s investments in CCS and direct air capture (DAC) technologies.

The administration’s Energy Secretary, Chris Wright—former CEO of Liberty Energy, a major player in hydraulic fracturing—has been instrumental in shaping energy policies that favor fossil fuel expansion.

The domestic ramifications of the Trump administration’s energy and climate policies are poised to be profound, affecting both the environmental landscape and the broader economic fabric of the United States. While the emphasis on fossil fuel expansion is expected to generate jobs and stimulate growth in the oil and gas sectors, it comes at the expense of renewable energy initiatives, potentially stalling efforts to diversify and modernize the U.S. energy portfolio.

The administration has already rescinded over 100 federal environmental regulations, including those aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions, controlling air and water pollution, and limiting hazardous substances. This sweeping deregulation has weakened protections for wildlife and lowered environmental standards for federal infrastructure projects, most notably enabling drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge. Additionally, federal funding for renewable energy research has been slashed by 40%, reversing efforts previously aimed at mitigating climate change.

According to Reuters, these rollbacks could lead to an estimated 80,000 additional deaths per decade due to increased air pollution and contribute to respiratory illnesses affecting over a million Americans. The administration’s tariff policies, including a 25% tariff on Mexican energy imports and a 10% tariff on Canadian energy imports, are expected to further drive up consumer costs, with fuel prices in New England projected to rise by 20 to 40 cents per gallon. President Trump, in a joint address to Congress, acknowledged that his tariff policies “may hurt a little,” but their broader impact on energy affordability and infrastructure development remains a critical concern.

Meanwhile, the dismissal of hundreds of employees from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has raised alarm among experts and legislators, exacerbating fears over the privatization of weather forecasting and the diminished role of public scientific data in policymaking. The acceleration of drilling and pipeline projects also heightens ecological risks, threatening biodiversity and public health.

The U.S. withdrawal from international climate commitments significantly weakens collective efforts to combat global warming. The Paris Agreement, a linchpin of global climate policy, relies on the active participation of major emitters like the United States. By exiting the accord, the U.S. not only diminishes its own accountability but also sets a dangerous precedent that could encourage non-compliance from other nations.

The “Drill, Baby, Drill” strategy has had cascading effects beyond U.S. borders. As the United States expands offshore drilling and relaxes environmental safeguards, other nations may follow suit, potentially reversing progress toward global decarbonization. This shift jeopardizes the feasibility of meeting international climate targets, making it increasingly difficult to limit global warming below critical thresholds.

Climate scientists warn that the window to prevent catastrophic climate change is rapidly closing. In 2024, global average temperatures reached 15.10°C—the highest on record—exceeding pre industrial levels by 1.60°C. For the first time, a calendar year surpassed the 1.5°C threshold set by the Paris Agreement. Concurrently, global carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels rose to approximately 37 billion tons in 2023, marking a 1.1% increase from 2022 and a 1.5% rise above pre-pandemic levels. Notably, 50% of these emissions in 2023 originated from just 36 fossil fuel companies, including Saudi Aramco, Coal India, ExxonMobil, and Shell.

In the United States alone, 2024 witnessed 27 climate-related disasters, each causing over $1 billion in damages, with cumulative losses reaching approximately $182.7 billion. These figures highlight the escalating economic and human toll of inaction.

The United States’ renewed focus on fossil fuel expansion under the “Drill, Baby, Drill” framework poses a formidable challenge to global climate action. While select domestic industries may benefit in the short term, the long-term consequences for environmental sustainability and international cooperation are dire. At this critical juncture, the world cannot afford further delays in addressing the climate crisis. The cost of inaction is far greater than any short-term economic gains derived from fossil fuel expansion.

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