A brainchild of former Japanese Prime Minister Late. Shinzo Abe, the Quadrilateral alliance – or the Quad – was first conceived in 2007. Since 2017, attempts to revive the QUAD has led to a renewed interest around the alliance, however, the ambivalence that killed it in 2008 remains. The recently concluded Delaware summit of the leaders of the Quad – four “like minded” and “value sharing” democracies – might not have wholly answered the burning question behind the purpose of the group. Nevertheless, one statement in Delaware and throughout the preceding summits of the alliance has been reiterated enough – “The QUAD is not against any single third party” – then what and why is The QUAD?
Outgoing US President Joe Biden recently hosted the QUAD summit, the leaders of Japan, India and Australia, at his home in Wilmington, Delaware. The White House stated that the special gesture by the President of the United States to host his Asian counterparts at his home, in probably one of his last major diplomatic engagement, signalled the sheer vitality he attaches to the QUAD, its member states and the personal bonhomie that the American leader has fostered with his counterparts during the tenure of his Presidency. India, which was the original host for the year, delegated the summit organisation to the US after a special request from the Biden administration. Indeed the summit of the QUAD nations in Wilmington was perhaps the most substantial in its history.
The QUAD has always maintained that it is not an alliance against anyone but a partnership of like-minded and value sharing democracies to ensure freedom, openness, respect of sovereignty and territorial integrity of states, and foster economic ties in the Indo-Pacific region, which is increasingly the hotspot of geopolitics. Howbeit, it is an open secret that the convergence of these like-minded and value sharing democracies for the purpose they state is only in lieu of growing Chinese assertion and aggression in the region that undermine the sovereignty of many states and are also a predominant threat to the prospects of QUAD powers in Asia. In fact, President Biden himself, had a hot-mic moment during the summit, where he was recorded stating “China continues to behave aggressively, testing us all (US, India, Australia and Japan) across the region. It is true in South China Sea, East China Sea, South China, South Asia and the Taiwan Straits”. Inadvertently, the US President vented the frustration around Chinese activities that bound the QUAD together even as it treads towards deepening ties and predicating them throughout myriad fields.
The Summit in Delaware has elevated the QUAD alliance to the summit level. It is not an institutionalised alliance, therefore, observers are quick to question its strength. It is true indeed that the QUAD is only at a nascent stage right now, nevertheless, all QUAD nations do seem to have a profound sense of cruciality for the alliance. For the QUAD countries, in sooth, the alliance at its crux is capable of being strongly vested in ensuring their security interests. The novelty of the alliance should not be misconstrued as a default impediment in its longer term agendas. As Australian Prime Minister, Anthony Albanese remarked during the summit in the US – “It is true that the QUAD does not have a headquarter, history or a tradition. And some might perceive that to somehow undermine its potency. But I think that also gives us the opportunity to script something completely new and incredible”. How Prime Minister Albanese’s statement ages remains to be seen, although, one can only evince a positive outlook for the QUAD from current developments.
The QUAD In-action:
Over the past four years, QUAD leaders have met six times, including twice virtually. QUAD Foreign Ministers have met eight times, most recently in Tokyo in July. The QUAD governments also intend to work with their respective legislatures to deepen inter-parliamentary exchanges, and encourage other stakeholders to deepen engagement with Quad counterparts. The United States Members of Congress have announced the creation of a bipartisan, bicameral Congressional Quad Caucus. The QUAD Development Financial Institutions and Agencies has been established with aim to make efficacious collective investments by the four countries in health security, food security, clean energy and quality infrastructure. This builds on a previous meeting in 2022 between the heads of the Export Finance Australia, the Australian Infrastructure Financing Facility for the Pacific, India Export-Import Bank, Japan Bank for International Cooperation, and U.S. International Development Finance Corporation (DFC).
The principal highlight of the Delaware summit was the declaration of the QUAD Cancer Moonshot. A collective effort to leverage public and private resources to reduce the number of lives lost to cancer in the Indo-Pacific, with an initial focus on cervical cancer. Altogether, the Quad Cancer Moonshot is targeted to save hundreds of thousands of lives over the coming decades.
Twenty years ago, the QUAD first came together to respond to the devastating 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake and tsunami, surging humanitarian assistance to affected countries. In 2022, QUAD Foreign Ministers signed the Guidelines for the QUAD Partnership on HADR in the Indo-Pacific. In May 2024, following a tragic landslide in Papua New Guinea, QUAD countries coordinated their response in accordance with these guidelines. The QUAD collectively provided over $5 million in humanitarian assistance. QUAD nations are also reported to be finalising the transfer of $4 million in aid to Vietnam in the aftermath of the Typhoon Yagi.
QUAD Leaders launched the Indo-Pacific Partnership for Maritime Domain Awareness (IPMDA) at the 2022 QUAD Leaders’ Summit in Tokyo. This initiative provides partners with near-real-time, cost-effective, cutting-edge radio frequency data, enabling them to better monitor their waters; counter illegal, unreported, and unregulated fishing; respond to climate change and natural disasters; and enforce their laws within their waters. Since the announcement, in consultation with partners, the QUAD has successfully scaled the program across the Indo-Pacific region—through the Pacific Islands Forum Fisheries Agency, with partners in Southeast Asia, to the Information Fusion Center—Indian Ocean Region, Gurugram. In doing so, the QUAD has helped well over two dozen countries access dark vessel maritime domain awareness data, so they can better monitor the activities in their exclusive economic zones—including unlawful activity.
The QUAD Summit in Delaware also marked the launch of an Indo-Pacific Logistics Network pilot project, to pursue shared airlift capacity among the four nations and leverage collective logistics strengths, in order to support civilian response to natural disasters more rapidly and efficiently across the Indo-Pacific region. This effort will complement existing efforts with the QUAD’s Indo-Pacific partners. The U.S. Coast Guard, Japan Coast Guard, Australian Border Force, and Indian Coast Guard plan to launch a first-ever QUAD-at-Sea Ship Observer Mission in 2025 in the Indo Pacific to improve interoperability. Through this effort, members of Japan Coast Guard, Australian Border Force, and Indian Coast Guard will spend time on board a U.S. Coast Guard vessel operating in the Indo-Pacific. The QUAD stated its intentions to continue with further missions in the Indo-Pacific.
The QUAD Ports of the Future Partnership was announced to harness the QUAD’s expertise “to support sustainable and resilient port infrastructure development across the Indo-Pacific, in collaboration with regional partners”. In 2025, QUAD partners intend to hold the inaugural Regional Ports and Transportation Conference, hosted by India in Mumbai.
The QUAD Infrastructure Fellowship was announced at the 2023 QUAD Leaders’ Summit to improve capacity and deepen professional networks across the region to design, manage, and attract investment in infrastructure projects. Over the past year, it has expanded to more than 2,200 experts, and QUAD partners have already provided well over 1,300 fellowships.
Another milestone initiative under the QUAD is the Partnership for Cable Connectivity and Resilience to synergise forces in securing undersea cables and digital connectivity. In support of these efforts, Australia launched the Cable Connectivity and Resilience Centre in July, which is delivering workshops and policy and regulatory assistance in response to requests from across the region. Japan has conducted capacity building trainings to enhance connectivity and resilience in the Indo-Pacific through cooperation with specialized agencies and international organizations. Japan intends to further extend technical cooperation to improve public information and communication technology infrastructure management capacity for an undersea cable in Nauru and Kiribati. The four nation alliance has omitted its aspiration to to stay at the forefront of technology innovation, and remain committed to harnessing emerging technologies “for the benefit of people across the Indo-Pacific, and deploying these technologies to facilitate economic prosperity, openness, and connectivity.”
In 2023, QUAD partners announced the first-ever Open RAN deployment in the Pacific, in Palau, to support a secure, resilient, and interconnected telecommunications ecosystem. Since then, the QUAD has committed approximately $20 million to this effort. Building on this initiative, the QUAD announces an expansion of Open Radio Access Network (RAN) collaboration to deliver trusted technology solutions. The QUAD plans to expand support for ongoing Open RAN field trials and the Asia Open RAN Academy (AORA) in the Philippines.
The most gravitating industry of our times, Artificial Intelligence, also finds a pivotal mention in the QUAD’s agenda. Through the Advancing Innovations for Empowering NextGen Agriculture (AI-ENGAGE) initiative announced at the 2023 QUAD Leaders’ Summit, QUAD governments are deepening leading-edge collaborative research to harness artificial intelligence, robotics, and sensing, to transform agricultural approaches and empower farmers across the Indo Pacific. The QUAD announced an inaugural $7.5+ million in funding opportunities for joint research, and highlights the recent signing of a Memorandum of Cooperation among the four countries’ science agencies to connect research communities and advance shared research principles. It is also reported that the QUAD countries, through the Standards Sub-Group, launched two Track 1.5 dialogues on AI and Advanced Communications Technologies to promote international standardisation cooperation, including frameworks for AI conformity assessment.
On Semiconductors, which too seem to entail immense value in QUAD collaboration, the alliance welcomed the finalisation of a Memorandum of Cooperation for the Semiconductor Supply Chains Contingency Network to facilitate collaboration in addressing semiconductor supply chain risks.
The QUAD has also initiated a collaborative effort towards critical and emerging technologies in form of the the QUAD Investors Network (QUIN) launched during the 2023 leaders summit. This year, the QUIN supported ten major strategic investments and partnerships across the Quad in the critical minerals, renewable energy, cybersecurity, and aerospace sectors. The QUIN developed a Quantum Center of Excellence, which produced a report this year highlighting ways each Quad country’s Quantum ecosystems can work together to collectively leverage capital and expertise.
Climate Change too finds an emphatic mention in the QUAD agenda and its priorities. The four nation alliance has committed itself to bolster resilience of island nations in the Indo-Pacific, who are already somber victims of climate change and continue to face grave threats. The Quad intends to expand its Early Warning Systems and the Climate Information Services Initiative (CIS), announced at the 2023 Leaders’ Summit. This will help improve Pacific Island countries’ access to high-quality climate data and services, and increase partners’ capacity to prepare for and respond to climate change and its impacts.
QUAD Leaders announced a QUAD Clean Energy Supply Chain Diversification Program last year, which aims to support the development of secure and diversified clean energy supply chains in the Indo-Pacific region. Australia will open applications for the QUAD Clean Energy Supply Chains Diversification Program in November, providing AUD 50 million to support projects that develop and diversify solar panel, hydrogen electrolyse and battery supply chains. India commits to invest $2 million in new solar projects in Fiji, Comoros, Madagascar, and Seychelles. Japan has committed to $122 million grants and loans, both public and private, in renewable energy projects in the Indo-Pacific. The United States, through the Development Finance Corporation (DFC), has extended a $250 million loan to Tata Power Solar to construct a solar cell manufacturing facility and a $500 million loan to First Solar to construct and operate a solar module manufacturing facility in India.
Throughout this fall, each QUAD country plans to host events to mark the annual QUAD Cyber Challenge promoting responsible cyber ecosystems, public resources, and cybersecurity awareness. This year’s Cyber Challenge campaigns will focus on establishing career pathway programs to increase the number and diversity of global cybersecurity professionals, including increased participation by women, in this rapidly growing field. Last year’s QUAD Cyber Challenge included over 85,000 participants across the Indo-Pacific region.
The QUAD has sought to elevate people-to-people ties, the greatest strength considered in modern diplomacy, through a variety of programs such as International Visitors Leadership Program and other exchanges on the issues of cyber security, workforce development for critical and emerging technologies, women in STEM, combating disinformation, and regional maritime governance. However, it is the QUAD fellowships that champion this endeavour of the alliance, the QUAD is already welcoming the second cohort of fellows and has expanded the program to include students from ASEAN nations for the first time. Private sector partners for the next cohort of the QUAD fellows include Google, the Pratt Foundation, and Western Digital.
India announced a new initiative to award fifty Quad scholarships, worth $500,000, to students from the Indo-Pacific to pursue a 4-year undergraduate engineering program at a Government of India-funded technical institution.
QUAD cooperation on space has been foregrounded in the alliance’s agenda. A non-conventional and an infant alliance stretches from education to space, infrastructure development to climate change, and people-to-people ties to security. Unequivocally, the QUAD is manifesting its role in moulding the geopolitical and the geoeconomic landscape of posterity. The four countries plan to continue delivering Earth Observation data and other space-related applications to assist nations across the Indo-Pacific to strengthen climate early warning systems and better manage the impacts of extreme weather events. Latterly India established a space-based web portal for Mauritius to support the concept of open science for space-based monitoring of extreme weather events and climate impact. The alliance is ideating to share expertise and experience in space situational awareness (SSA), contributing to long-term sustainability of the space environment.
The issue of counterterrorism (CT), vehemently raised by India, continues to find vital mentions in the QUAD’s program. The QUAD hosted its first Counter Terrorism Working Group (CTWG) in 2023 and meets annually to discuss CT threats, QUAD CT good practices, and ways the QUAD can work together to mitigate acts of terrorism through information sharing, consequence management and strategic messaging. The Quad CTWG currently focuses on countering the use of unmanned aerial systems (C-UAS), chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear devices (CBRN), and the internet for terrorist purposes.
As the aforementioned information is testimony to – the QUAD is spreading its wings rather swiftly. Then why is the alliance subjected to such an intense scrutiny? Of course, the alliance’s continuous ambiguity on its end goals is a principal reason to attract scepticism. Analysts and observers unanimously agree that the QUAD is so seamlessly converged and hastened due to the larger geopolitical tumult being driven by China in the Indo-Pacific. Nevertheless, the alliance, in the status-quo, maintains that it is not against any one nation rather it is a coming together of friendly nations to better address global and regional issues. That could very easily change if China were to engage any other nation in a conflict. We can evince this from the Tokyo meeting of QUAD Foreign Ministers, who took a jibe at China for its “dangerous manoeuvres” in the South China Sea and reaffirmed their commitment to ensure the protection of the Philippines maritime rights.
Immediately after it was known that the New Delhi Summit of QUAD leaders in 2024 was postponed – an interpretation was drawn – with a parallel development. The US, the Philippines, Japan and Australia had formed a mini-lateral group, dubbed “The SQUAD”. Some questioned if the QUAD is already waning? The answer is an absolute no. A mini-lateral group like the SQUAD is an efficient strategy to address current geopolitical and strategic menaces by China, all the while, the QUAD continues to lay its full fledged arrangement by buttressing cooperation across all fields to construct a unified deep-seated force in the region and deter China’s assertiveness.
The Political Vulnerabilities of the QUAD:
The aforementioned elucidation on the QUAD’s initiatives aid our comprehension of the direction the alliance is subtly pursuing. To slander the QUAD as futile or trivial in its orientation indicates misconstrued assessments, however, equally misplaced is the perceived stability of the alliance in absence of extraneous efforts. As we evince from the QUAD’s nurturing, the alliance demonstrates a strong promise in the Indo-Pacific region and the world. The regional and global arrangement it attempts to entrench are a long way and if successful would deem the QUAD as one of the most accomplished diplomatic endeavours. It indubitably could be a pioneering alliance of 21st century diplomacy. Nonetheless, India, the United States, Japan and Australia are all sweeping powers of the world. In a post-haste world, such preponderant nations are bound to encounter economic or strategic differences, as they exercise their influence in the region and the world. Establishing concurrence among these four nations is not a given but requires extensive labour by the entire governance, administrative and business apparatuses of these countries. Of course, shared values and even more crucially shared interests will always be a robust propellor for the QUAD.
After a photograph of the QUAD leaders in Wilmington, Delaware, US President Joe Biden was asked by a reporter – “Will the QUAD survive after November?” – implying what lies for the alliance in the aftermath of the US Presidential election this November. Biden replied – “way beyond November”, as if he could have said anything else. It is true that politically the QUAD is set to undergo a major leadership change that will have consequent effect on the dynamics of the alliance. QUAD leaders visit to Biden’s house in Delaware was a farewell meeting between the US Presidents and his Asian counterparts. President Biden sought to reaffirm US partnership with each of the QUAD leaders through the personal bonhomie he has fostered with Prime Ministers Modi, Albanese and Kishida.
Weeks before his arrival to the US for the QUAD summit, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida announced that he would not seek reelection for the Liberal Democratic Party’s leadership, effectively resigning from the premiership of Japan. We now know that Shigeru Ishiba, who proposed an Asian NATO-like alliance, is going to be the new Prime Minister of Japan. While Ishiba’s proposal for an Asian NATO was not met with enthusiasm, he can devoutly seek to strengthen the QUAD.
Australian Prime Minister, Anthony Albanese, faces a general election next year in 2025. His Labour Party is locked in a stiff competition with the Liberal Party headed by Peter Dutton. Only India’s Narendra Modi, who secured a third term in June 2024, is sure to stay as the QUAD, hopefully, stretches its wings. If Donald J. Trump succeeds in the November election, we can be certain for the Trump card to be played in the QUAD as well, and the results can only be awaited. While the democratic nominee, Kamala Harris, is likely to continue Biden’s polices on the QUAD. Hence, a leadership overall could either provide a thrust to the QUAD or make it dawdle.
As of now, we can only conclude that the QUAD is necessary to maintain balance of power in the Indo-Pacific, an alliance of major power it harbours tremendous potential, and is already laying the groundwork for multimodal delivery across spheres of life. Nevertheless, the alliance is still dawning and it is susceptible to precarity through a variety of factors. The alliance’s destiny is plausibly aligned with its unavowed purpose and cannot be determined at this instance.