Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi reached Kyiv via a train from Poland, where he recently concluded a 2 day visit, to meet with President Zelensky of Ukraine. The visit by the Prime Minister, who was last month the guest of Russian President Vladimir Putin, is the first by an Indian Prime Minister to the country and the region since the collapse of the Soviet Union. Modi’s visit is of increased preponderance in lieu of recent developments in the Russia-Ukraine war, where the latter recently launched an offensive in the Russian territory of the Kursk region.
After concluding a two day visit to Poland, Mr. Modi arrived in Kyiv on August 24, and held deliberations with Ukrainian President Zelenskyy. The Prime Minister was accompanied by his External Affairs Minister, Dr. S. Jaishankar, and Indian National Security Advisor, Ajit Doval. Mr. Modi was accompanied by President Zelenskyy to pay tributes at a memorial for child victims of the ongoing conflict. Later, the Indian Prime Minister payed a visit to the statue of Mahatama Gandhi in Kyiv as he dismissed India’s supposed neutrality in the ongoing conflict, instead suggesting that the world’s largest democracy was on the side of peace as the land of Gandhi.
The talks between the two leaders included, of course the war, and also cooperation in defence, culture, tourism and industry. Mr. Zelenskyy held an almost hour long press conference with the Indian media immediately after the visit of the Indian Prime Minister.
The Russia-Ukraine war commenced in February 2022 with the former initiating a “special military operation”, virtually an invasion, in Ukraine. The war, now heading in its third year, has crippled Eastern Ukraine with the World Bank projecting an estimated cost of $411 billion for reconstruction. Russia, since the invasion, has occupied Ukrainian territories of Donetsk, Kharkiv, Kherson, Luhansk, Mykolayiv, and Zaporizhzhya, in addition to Crimea, which was annexed in 2014. Although, Russia’s war time economy seems to continue demonstrating growth and activity, it is largely due to spiralling defense spending to propel weapon manufacturing as Ukraine remains flushed with state-of the-art weaponry from NATO nations that have enabled inconceivable resilience in its combat against the Russians. As per estimates from US think tank, RAND Corporation, each day of the war in Ukraine costs Russia anywhere between $500 million to $ 1 billion. This hefty cost is further supplemented by a string of sanctions that NATO countries and other US allies have imposed on Russia that have led to widespread ramifications for the Russian economy.
However, apart from grave food insecurity and supply chain disruptions, a better placement of the conflict in global geopolitical developments is understood by assessing the enablers of the Russian resilience too. China, indubitably, has emerged as the principal ally to the Russians and that is explicitly evident by the frequent high level engagements between the two countries since the war broke out in 2022. China’s motivations to back Russia aren’t convoluted, its as clear as day follows night, the larger Chinese antagonism against the US and its allies due to bolstering competition between the world’s two largest economic powers has found strong geopolitical foothold in the Ukraine conflict. Although the Chinese have constantly called for “peace”, and in 2024 along with Brazil even proposed a six-point peace plan while seeking to establish their neutrality in the conflict, they are discretely oiling the Russian war machine. China has been the largest purchaser of discounted Russian oil, due to sanctions, since the war began in 2022. Moreover, China is also described as maintaining a “transactional partnership” with Russia by strengthening Moscow’s ties with the likes of Pyongyang. Putin’s visit to North Korea this year, in the immediate aftermath of which North Korean artillery shells were found in Ukraine, is part of a broader emergence of traditional US adversaries and China allies as a substitute to the western dominated world order. Imperative international partnerships and forums in this regard include those of the BRICS+ (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) and the SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organisation), which are increasingly consequential forces in the Indo-Pacific region and beyond.
Unequivocally, the war in Ukraine has pushed Russia closer to China in what is often described as a “marriage of connivence” by international analysts. This development, however, has cast a shadow on Russia’s historically principal ally and similar to China a surging global power – India. China and India fought a war in 1962, bilateral ties between the two have been moderate at best, and severely hostile at worst. India shares more than 3000+ km long border with China, the LAC, Line of Actual Control. In May 2020, after decades of peace at the border, for the first time skirmishes transpired in the Galwan valley at the LAC that led to casualties on both sides as bilateral ties nosedived between the two major powers. Over 20 Indian soldiers were martyred in the clashes as official PLA (People’s Liberation Army) declared 4 Chinese casualties, although independent strategic think tanks have estimated the Chinese losses to be around 40. Ever since the Galwan clashes, Modi’s administration has become increasingly suspicious of China, it banned over 40 Chines apps including Tik Tok, and has sought to rebalance India’s trade dynamics with its larger neighbour. The Modi government heavily scrutinises each Chinese investment proposal into the country with more than half being rejected. Furthermore, Chinese professionals have been denied visa to work in India. Although China, realising the prolonged economic trepidation at home, has finally sort to mitigate ties with India. Nevertheless, the prospects of ties remain clouded with uncertainty.
Similar to China, India has also been a major buyer of Russian oil since the outbreak of the war. In fact, India overtook China in July 2024 to become the largest buyer of Russian oil. As per reports from Reuters, India bought a record 2.07 million barrels per day (bpd) from Russia in July compared with 1.76 million bpd by China. Mounting western anxiety over China’s rise and India’s security concerns with its larger neighbour have augmented ties between US, its allies and India significantly in the past years. A novel camaraderie between India and US allies is conspicuous as the ‘China+1’ concept emerges to redirect investments from China to India. The world’s largest democracy is also at the heart of the Indo-Pacific strategy, the most vital region in global polity, of most US allies. India’s decisive purchases from Russia has buoyed Putin’s war time economy and directly contradicted western interests. Consequently, a great deal of scepticism on India being a “western” or “American ally” is now pervading. Meanwhile, India has fervently defended its stance on Russia-Ukraine war and its purchase of discounted oil by emphasising the independence of its foreign policy and the precedence of its national interests. American diplomats have time and again concurred that they understand India’s longstanding relationship with Russia at a time when the US was “not there for the Indians”. Most strategic experts would agree that the stakes are too high for the US to now backdown on its partnership with India as it seeks to navigate through an increasingly multipolar world order. The Ukrainian side, however, has long urged India to recalibrate its ties and support for Russia as it does not embody the character of responsible global power. The Prime Minister’s visit to Ukraine is an imperative step forward as it demonstrates India’s willingness to heed Ukrainian concerns.
Narendra Modi’s visit to Kyiv is not going to miraculously alter India’s established stance on the conflict. The Indian government attempted to guise the visit as India demonstrating its responsibility as a leader of the global south nations, which encounter tremendous economic torment due to the ongoing hostilities. Bringing peace in Ukraine is essential to ease the economic burden of global south economies that are continuing to reel under the aftermath of the pandemic. In July, on the day Prime Minister met Putin at his private residence near Moscow, Russia launched a devastating strike at a hospital that led to many casualties with most being children. Hours after the deadly strikes the Prime Minister arrived at Mr. Putin’s private residence and the two leaders warmly embraced each other with a hug – irking western nations. As the US allies conducted the NATO summit in Washington simultaneously to the Prime Minister’s visit to Moscow, evincing the West’s failure in isolating Moscow and Mr. Putin, tensions were obvious. The Ukrainian President let out their vexation through a tweet in which he condemned “Putin’s strikes” at a child hospital and expressing his remorse at witnessing “the leader of the world’s largest democracy” embracing Putin on the very same day. In his official meetings with the Russian President the next day, Modi stated that “it hurts to see children die anywhere as a consequence of war”. This was not the first time that the Indian Prime Minister had publicly assailed the Russian President for his war in Ukraine, previously during a bilateral meeting at the sidelines of the SCO summit in Samarkand, Modi had remarked to Putin – “this is not a time of war”. Nonetheless, the same day Putin honoured Modi with the Order of the St Andrew the Apostle, which is Russia’s highest civilian honour.
Russia is a declining power and there are myriad measures to gauge the same. In the broader geopolitical tussle between the US and China, Russia is increasingly viewed as China’s second in command, something that is unacceptable to Putin. Hence, by solidifying an already deep rooted partnership with India, Russia sends an unequivocal message to China that it is a power in its own extent and that Moscow has other options. Some could argue that it is indeed the Russia-India partnership that keeps the world multipolar as without it we have two very well defined blocs of powers in the world.
As Russia’s desperation for allies and support grows with the prolonging war, Mr. Putin’s government is less concerned with what the Indian side says than what it does. Modi’s public censure of Putin’s war is not an issue for Russia, which has the largest importer of its goods and services in India. As a matter of fact, as per reports, Moscow has sought to establish concealed trade links with India to evade sanctions and procure a variety of materials for its domestic market. In simpler terms, for Russia, India pays big and that is the only Russian priority, and at that cost any criticism by Modi will be digested by Putin any day. For Ukraine’s Zelenskyy although, India is the principal enabler of the nation it is at war with and Modi’s sparse comments of sympathy and support are nowhere helping war torn Ukraine. The Indian side has no real incentive to strengthen ties with Ukraine as Zelenskyy proposed to hold his next peace conference, subsequent to the one held in Switzerland, in India, which elicited no reaction from Modi.
Under Modi, India does not tuck away its super power ambitions, and his government and the world already views India as a great force of the world. Capricious ties with China have pushed India under Modi to invigorate ties with the West, which is more and more reliant on India in its ability to compete with China. However, as Indian External Affairs Minister, Dr. S. Jaishankar said – “India is not a western country but that doesn’t make us anti-western”. India has never wanted to be a western ally and as per its calculations it is a tall standing polar in itself in the multipolar world. The Prime Minister’s visit to Ukraine, almost three years after commencing of the war, reveals India doing the bare minimum to lend a ear to western concerns in the conflict. A visit of show and not so much of substance is to illustrate India’s independent engagements in the world as leading power in its own right. Russia has explicitly called the Indian premier’s visit as a constructive step towards peace. While US President Joe Biden hailed Modi for his visit to Ukraine through a tweet on X.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi will visit Kazan, Russia in October for BRICS+ meeting and Russian President Vladimir Putin, in a meeting with Modi’s National Security Advisor Donal this month, has called for a bilateral meeting during the visit. India’s independent foreign policy, entrenched in its envisaging of itself as a power and further aspirations, might draw widespread chiding and appreciation, however, the only thing certain is that the country will continue the India way – something global analysts will take time to comprehend.