A brutal terrorist attack in Pahalgam, India, has compelled the world’s largest democracy to confront its rickety neighbour, Pakistan, elevating the risk of war between two nuclear-armed states. The crisis pits the world’s fastest-growing major economy against a nation on the brink of economic ruin, desperately seeking an IMF bailout. The stakes are high, and the odds are starkly lopsided, as India prepares to confront a state whose power structure has withered into a militant nexus. In a country where no Prime Minister or government has ever completed its term, where Army Chiefs have thrice seized absolute power, and the state is interlaced with unfettered terror networks, the question often arises: who holds real power, and is there any genuine interest in authority being exercised for national or public welfare?
Since its inception in 1947, Pakistan has experienced a persistent oscillation between civilian governance and military dominance. The military has directly ruled the country for over three decades and has exerted significant influence over civilian governments during other periods. Notably, no civilian Prime Minister has ever completed a full five-year term, while military leaders have maintained prolonged tenures. Public confidence in the military remains high, with a 2018 survey indicating that 93.2% of respondents had confidence in the armed forces, compared to just 43.6% for political parties.
Pakistan’s military and intelligence agencies, particularly the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), have historically maintained relationships with various militant groups, using them as strategic assets in regional conflicts. These groups include Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM), and the Haqqani Network. The ISI has been accused of providing support to these organizations, facilitating training, funding, and operational planning. For instance, the ISI has been linked to the establishment and support of LeT, which was responsible for the 2008 Mumbai attacks that killed 166 people.
The Haqqani Network, another group with alleged ties to the ISI, has been implicated in numerous attacks against U.S. and Afghan forces. In 2011, U.S. Admiral Mike Mullen described the Haqqani Network as a “veritable arm” of the ISI, highlighting the depth of this relationship.
The 2024 general elections in Pakistan, held on February 8, were marred by widespread allegations of electoral manipulation, casting a long shadow over the country’s democratic processes. These elections underscored the persistent dominance of the military establishment in Pakistan’s political sphere and highlighted the challenges faced by civilian institutions in asserting their authority.
In the lead-up to the elections, the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), led by former Prime Minister Imran Khan, faced significant hurdles. The Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) and the Supreme Court barred PTI from using its iconic cricket bat symbol, forcing its candidates to run as independents with obscure symbols, complicating voter recognition, especially in rural areas. Additionally, PTI’s leadership, including Imran Khan, was incarcerated, and many candidates faced arrests or were compelled to withdraw under duress. Media coverage of PTI was severely restricted, with directives allegedly issued to suppress mentions of the party and its activities.
On election day, the government suspended mobile internet services nationwide, citing security concerns. This move hampered communication and raised concerns about transparency. Reports emerged of ballot box tampering, voter intimidation, and polling station irregularities. Notably, the transmission of election results was delayed, and when resumed, discrepancies were observed between preliminary counts and final tallies, leading to allegations of result manipulation.
Despite the challenges, PTI-affiliated independents secured a significant number of seats, indicating substantial public support. However, the formation of the government saw the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N), perceived to have military backing, leading a coalition. This outcome intensified public skepticism about the electoral process’s fairness and the military’s role in shaping political outcomes.
Pakistan’s economy in 2025 is grappling with a severe crisis characterized by high inflation, mounting debt, and a reliance on international financial assistance. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has approved a $7 billion financial assistance program, with a recent $1 billion tranche released, bringing the total disbursed to $2 billion. Additionally, the IMF is reviewing a new $1.3 billion sustainability loan for Pakistan over two years.
Inflation has been a significant concern, with the State Bank of Pakistan maintaining the benchmark interest rate at 12% amid geopolitical tensions and inflationary pressures. Although inflation dropped to 0.7% in March, forecasts suggest moderate increases, and the central bank aims to resume rate cuts once inflation targets are more certain.
The country’s debt situation is alarming, with over $22 billion of public external debt maturing in the fiscal year 2025, including nearly $13 billion in bilateral deposits. The military’s significant share of the national budget, often at the expense of social and development spending, exacerbates the economic crisis. This allocation reflects the military’s prioritization of defense and strategic interests over economic stability and public welfare.
Pakistan’s energy sector, heavily reliant on Chinese-built power plants under the Belt and Road Initiative, has become a financial burden. The high costs of repaying Chinese loans and currency devaluation have left the country with enormous debts and unaffordable electricity prices. Citizens struggle to afford basic utilities as electricity bills surpass monthly incomes, further aggravating financial woes.
The recent escalation in hostilities between India and Pakistan has intensified concerns over Pakistan’s already precarious economic situation. The conflict, sparked by a terrorist attack in Indian-administered Kashmir on April 22, 2025, has led to a series of retaliatory strikes and heightened military activities along the Line of Control (LoC).
In response to the attack, India launched “Operation Sindoor,” targeting alleged terrorist infrastructure in Pakistan and Pakistan-administered Kashmir. Pakistan retaliated with drone and missile attacks, leading to casualties and damage on both sides . The conflict has resulted in civilian and military casualties, with reports of at least 48 deaths since the escalation began.
This military escalation poses significant risks to Pakistan’s economy. The country is already grappling with high inflation, a depreciating currency, and dwindling foreign reserves. The conflict threatens to derail the ongoing $7 billion IMF recovery program and could further restrict access to international capital markets.
The suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) by India adds another layer of complexity to the situation. The treaty, which governs the sharing of river waters between the two countries, is crucial for Pakistan’s agriculture and hydroelectric power generation. Its suspension would have long-term ramifications for Pakistan’s food and energy security. Agriculture, which contributes 24% to Pakistan’s GDP, is anticipated to be in a pitfall with outputs being reduced to half due the abeyance of the IWT.
Who Runs Pakistan?
1. Syed Asim Munir Ahmed Shah, Chief of Army Staff, Pakistan
Widely accepted as the most Powerful man in Pakistan. Syed Asim Munir Ahmed Shah (57) is the 11th Chief of Army Staff of the Pakistani Armed Forces. Munir previously served as the 28th Director General of the Inter-services Intelligence (ISI), Pakistan’s premier intelligence service. Born in 1966, Munir is a Hafiz-e-Quran and the first Pakistani army chief to have led both the Military Intelligence (MI) and the ISI. His tenure as ISI chief was cut short by then-Prime Minister Imran Khan, leading to a strained relationship between the two. After Khan’s ousting in April 2022, Munir was appointed army chief seven months later.
General Munir is known for his hardline stance on India and Kashmir. In April 2025, days before the Pahalgam terror attack that killed 26 civilians, Munir delivered a speech describing Kashmir as Pakistan’s “jugular vein” and underscored the “two-nation theory,” asserting that Muslims and Hindus are distinct nations with irreconcilable differences. He stated, “Our traditions are different, our thoughts are different, our ambitions are different,” and pledged unwavering support for Kashmiris in their struggle.
These remarks were widely perceived in India as inflammatory and contributing to the subsequent attack in Pahalgam. Indian Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri berated Munir’s speech as “the last word in communal rhetoric,” suggesting it aimed to sow religious discord.
Munir’s influence extends beyond military affairs into Pakistan’s political sphere. He has been accused of orchestrating the suppression of the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party led by Imran Khan, including the use of military courts to try civilians involved in the May 9, 2023, riots following Khan’s arrest. Human rights groups condemned these trials, and Pakistan’s Supreme Court later declared them unconstitutional. Additionally, Munir has faced allegations of manipulating the 2024 elections to sideline Khan and consolidate military power.
The extension of Munir’s tenure from three to five years, facilitated by legislation passed in November 2024, further consolidates his power, ensuring his leadership until at least 2027. This move, supported by the Sharif administration, reflects the civilian government’s reliance on military backing for political stability. Analysts note that Munir’s expansive control over Pakistan’s military, political, and economic spheres marks a significant shift in the country’s power dynamics, with the army chief emerging as the central authority in governance. His authority extends beyond military affairs into political and economic domains, effectively positioning him as the de facto leader of Pakistan.
2. Mian Muhammad Nawaz Sharif, former Prime Minister of Pakistan
Nawaz Sharif, a three-time former Prime Minister of Pakistan, continues to wield substantial influence over the nation’s political landscape through strategic familial placements and party leadership. Sharif has held the office of Prime Minister for the longest duration in Pakistan. Despite his disqualification from holding public office in 2017 due to corruption charges linked to the Panama Papers scandal, Sharif orchestrated a political resurgence by positioning his brother, Shehbaz Sharif, as Prime Minister and his daughter, Maryam Nawaz, as the Chief Minister of Punjab, Pakistan’s most populous province.
This consolidation of power within the Sharif family has been facilitated by Nawaz Sharif’s continued leadership of the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N), allowing him to influence key political decisions and maintain a dominant role in governance. His involvement in high-level consultations on national security and policy matters underscores his enduring authority within the party and the government.
Notably, in December 2015, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi made an unprecedented visit to Lahore to attend the wedding of Sharif’s granddaughter, Mehrun Nisa. This gesture was seen as a significant thaw in bilateral relations, with both leaders expressing a desire to enhance dialogue and cooperation.
Amid the recent escalation of tensions following the Pahalgam attack on April 22, 2025, which resulted in the deaths of 26 civilians, Sharif has advocated for a diplomatic approach as per a NDTV report. Upon returning to Pakistan, he advised Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif to leverage all available diplomatic channels to de-escalate the situation with India, underlining restraint over aggression.
3. Mian Muhammad Shehbaz Sharif, Prime Minister of Pakistan.
Shehbaz Sharif, the younger brother of former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, currently serves as Pakistan’s Prime Minister. Despite holding the nation’s highest civilian office, his authority is often perceived as circumscribed by both familial influence and the overarching power of the military establishment.
Shehbaz’s political journey is deeply intertwined with his family’s legacy. The Sharif family, originating from Lahore, has been a dominant force in Pakistani politics for decades. Nawaz Sharif’s three non-consecutive terms as Prime Minister have solidified the family’s political stature. Shehbaz’s ascent to the premiership was facilitated by Nawaz’s endorsement, and his leadership of the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) underscores the family’s continued grip on the party’s direction.
4. Maryam Nawaz Sharif, Chief Minister of Punjab Province, Pakistan
Maryam Nawaz Sharif, daughter of former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, made history on February 26, 2024, by becoming the first female Chief Minister of Punjab, Pakistan’s most populous province. Her unanimous election, securing 220 votes in the 371-seat assembly, marked a significant milestone in Pakistani politics.
Maryam’s ascent is seen as a stepping stone toward potentially becoming Pakistan’s Prime Minister, following in the footsteps of her father and uncle . Her tenure as Chief Minister serves as a platform to demonstrate her leadership capabilities on a national scale.
5. General Sahir Shamshad Mirza, Chairman Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee of Pakistan
General Sahir Shamshad Mirza, appointed as the 18th Chairman Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee (CJCSC) of Pakistan on November 27, 2022, is a four-star general. His role as CJCSC positions him as a principal military advisor to the civilian government, overseeing coordination among the Army, Navy, and Air Force, and contributing to national security policymaking.
Commissioned into the 8th Sind Regiment in 1987, General Sahir Shamshad Mirza has held several pivotal positions within the Pakistan Army. From 2015 to 2018, he served as Director General Military Operations, where he was responsible for overseeing critical operational planning and execution. He subsequently held the role of Chief of General Staff from 2019 to 2021, widely regarded as the second-most powerful position in the Army, entrusted with both operational and intelligence oversight. Between 2021 and 2022, he commanded the X Corps, Rawalpindi—a strategically vital corps responsible for operations along the Line of Control (LoC) with India, making it a central node in Pakistan’s security posture. General Mirza’s academic credentials include graduation from the Pakistan Military Academy, the Command and Staff College in Quetta, and the National Defence University in Islamabad. He also holds a Master of Science in Global Security from Cranfield University in the United Kingdom.
As Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee (CJCSC), General Mirza’s current role entails broad strategic coordination among the Army, Navy, and Air Force. He serves as a principal military advisor to the Prime Minister and Pakistan’s National Security Council, influencing high-level defense and security policy. Additionally, he represents Pakistan in key international defense engagements, including recent visits to Saudi Arabia and Oman aimed at deepening military-to military cooperation and regional strategic alignment.
6. Lieutenant General Muhammad Asim Malik, Director-General Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) and the National Security Advisor, Pakistan.
Lieutenant General Muhammad Asim Malik, HI(M), currently serves as both the Director-General of Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) and the National Security Advisor (NSA) of Pakistan—a dual role unprecedented in the country’s history.
As the head of ISI since September 30, 2024, Gen. Malik oversees Pakistan’s premier intelligence agency, responsible for national security, counterintelligence, and foreign intelligence operations. His concurrent appointment as NSA in April 2025 positions him as the principal advisor to the Prime Minister on national security and international affairs, marking the first time a serving ISI chief has held both roles simultaneously.
7. Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, Member of the National Assembly and former Foreign Minister, Pakistan
Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, born on September 21, 1988, in Karachi, is a prominent Pakistani politician and the current chairman of the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP). He is the son of former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto and former President Asif Ali Zardari, and the grandson of former Prime Minister Zulfikar Ali Bhutto. Bilawal assumed the leadership of the PPP in 2007 following his mother’s assassination.
Bilawal’s political journey has been marked by his efforts to reform the PPP and appeal to younger voters. He served as Pakistan’s Foreign Minister from April 2022 to August 2023, becoming the youngest person to hold the position.
Bilawal’s ties with Pakistan’s military establishment have been characterised by cautious engagement. While the PPP has historically had a convoluted relationship with the military, Bilawal has sought to maintain a working relationship, particularly during his tenure as Foreign Minister. Analysts suggest that his appointment to the foreign ministry was facilitated by the military’s approval, indicating a level of trust in his diplomatic capabilities.
In the current political landscape, the PPP has formed a coalition government with the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N), led by Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif. While the PPP holds significant influence within the coalition, Bilawal has been vocal about the need for political reforms and has positioned himself as a proponent of democratic principles.
8. Imran Khan, former Prime Minister of Pakistan
Imran Khan, born on October 5, 1952, in Lahore, Pakistan, rose to international fame as a cricket star, leading Pakistan to its first World Cup victory in 1992. Transitioning from sports to politics, he founded the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party in 1996, positioning himself as a reformist challenging the entrenched political dynasties of the Sharifs and Bhuttos. His anti-corruption stance and promise of a “New Pakistan” resonated with many, especially the youth and urban middle class.
Khan’s PTI secured a majority in the 2018 general elections, and he assumed office as Prime Minister. His tenure focused on anti-corruption measures, social welfare programs, and an independent foreign policy. However, economic challenges, including rising inflation and a depreciating currency, marred his administration. In April 2022, Khan became the first Pakistani Prime Minister to be removed from office through a no-confidence vote, a move he attributed to a foreign conspiracy, particularly implicating the United States, a claim the U.S. government has repeatedly denied.
Initially perceived as having the military’s backing, Khan’s relationship with the establishment deteriorated over time. His independent foreign policy decisions and attempts to assert civilian supremacy led to tensions. Post-ouster, Khan accused the military of orchestrating his removal and subsequent legal challenges, including his arrest and imprisonment.
Following his removal, Khan faced numerous legal cases. In August 2023, he was sentenced to three years in prison for misusing his premiership to buy and sell gifts in state possession. In January 2025, he received a 14-year sentence in a land corruption case involving the Al-Qadir Trust. Khan has consistently denied all charges, labelling them politically motivated.
Despite Khan’s incarceration and PTI facing significant hurdles, including restrictions on media coverage, arrests of party members, and alleged electoral manipulations, the party performed robustly in the 2024 general elections. PTI-affiliated independents secured a significant number of seats, reflecting Khan’s enduring popularity and public support. Nevertheless, the distorted election was contrived to keep Khan’s cohort out of power.
Reports of Khan facing harassment in prison, including restricted access to legal counsel and family visits, have stirred up discontent amid the masses. His legal team has raised concerns about his treatment, citing violations of his rights and court orders.
Khan has been a vocal critic of Pakistan’s traditional political families, particularly the Sharifs and Bhuttos. He has accused them of corruption and nepotism, positioning PTI as a clean alternative. This adversarial stance has intensified political rivalries and shaped the country’s polarised political landscape.
Khan remains incarcerated but continues to influence Pakistani politics. His party, PTI, maintains significant public support, and his sons have publicly appealed for his release, highlighting concerns over his treatment and the political motivations behind his imprisonment.
Pakistan today stands at a precipice, fractured by internal dysfunction, hollowed by economic insolvency, and entangled in a dangerous geopolitical spiral with its larger neighbour. The erosion of democratic institutions, manifested by rigged elections and the systematic dismantling of opposition forces, has yielded a hybrid regime where the balance of power is disproportionately tilted in favour of the military establishment. General Asim Munir’s ascendancy as the most powerful figure in Pakistan, commanding control over not just the armed forces but also critical intelligence and political levers, marks a definitive concentration of authority. The civilian leadership, represented by Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, operates under the shadow of both his elder brother Nawaz Sharif’s auspice and the omnipresence of military endorsement.
While Maryam Nawaz and Bilawal Bhutto Zardari represent the next generation of political leadership, their ascent is still tethered to the legacy of dynastic politics and reliant on military acquiescence. Meanwhile, General Sahir Shamshad Mirza and Lt. Gen. Asim Malik occupy strategic nodes in Pakistan’s security infrastructure, further institutionalising the military’s grip on national decision-making.
In the wake of the Pahalgam attack and the subsequent military escalation with India, the consequences of Pakistan’s deep entanglement with militant proxies and its inability to construct a coherent, civilian-led national strategy have come into stark relief. The economic stakes are dire, foreign reserves are perilously low, over $22 billion in external debt matures this year alone, and the IMF bailout seemed to teeter on compliance risk due to instability, although, the country was able to secure its 24th bailout in the end. The suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty by India severely jeopardises Pakistan’s agricultural backbone, threatening food security for millions.
Ultimately, Pakistan’s crisis is not simply one of governance or geopolitics, it is a structural unraveling where institutional militarisation, dynastic politicking, and economic dependency have left the state unable to chart a sovereign, developmental, or peaceful course forward. Terrorism has only exponentially fomented in midst of perineal institutional decay. The Pahalgam tragedy may come to be seen not only as a flashpoint in South Asian security, but as the moment the international community was forced to reckon with the grim reality: Pakistan is no longer a state merely under military influence, but one steered, unambiguously and unrepentantly, by a combination of militarised elite and an electoral aristocracy, for whom strategic depth has eclipsed national interest.